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Thursday, March 6, 2025
7:00 PM ET
Amalie Arena (ESPN)
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
5 – 6
Final
Tampa Bay Lightning
 TBL
50% xGF%
50% xGF%
BUF was expected to score 2.52 goals TBL was expected to score 2.54 goals
P1 P2 P3 0 1 2 2 Cumulative xG BUF TBL Dots represent goals
Shot Map (xG Shots Only) Shot Goal
xG by State Buffalo Sabres Tampa Bay Lightning
Strength State Time xG G Time xG G
Power Play 4:27 0.30 1 4:36 0.31 1
Even Strength 50:57 2.21 4 50:57 2.12 5
Penalty Kill 4:36 0.00 0 4:27 0.12 0
Score State Time xG G Time xG G
Up 2+ 5:03 0.22 0 0:00 0.00 0
Up 1 7:57 0.25 1 21:03 0.46 0
Tied 25:57 0.78 2 25:57 1.19 3
Down 1 21:03 1.27 2 7:57 0.68 2
Down 2+ 0:00 0.00 0 5:03 0.22 1
  • ► Nick Paul scores at 5:01 in the 1st period 0.04 xG (0-1)
  • ► Rasmus Dahlin scores at 5:17 in the 1st period 0.10 xG (1-1)
  • ► Darren Raddysh scores at 5:53 in the 1st period 0.01 xG (1-2)
  • ► Alex Tuch scores at 8:20 in the 1st period 0.07 xG (2-2)
  • ► Peyton Krebs scores at 17:09 in the 1st period 0.13 xG (3-2)
  • ► Jake Guentzel scores at 0:58 in the 2nd period 0.17 xG (3-3)
  • ► Tage Thompson scores at 9:35 in the 2nd period 0.04 xG (4-3)
  • ► JJ Peterka scores at 12:40 in the 2nd period 0.09 xG (5-3)
  • ► Jake Guentzel scores at 17:43 in the 2nd period 0.15 xG (5-4)
  • ► Jake Guentzel scores at 18:46 in the 2nd period 0.13 xG (5-5)
  • ► Oliver Bjorkstrand scores at 1:40 in the 3rd period 0.15 xG (5-6)
  • ► Watch the full game recap here
TBL TBL xWin%
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Synthesized xGF% & GF% Analysis
Forwards
Team Player xG G A Pts Shifts TOI SOG +/- PIM PPG PPP SHG GWG
BUF Tage Thompson (C) 0.46 1 0 1 25 19:19 5 0 2 1 0 0 0
TBL Jake Guentzel (C) 0.46 3 0 3 24 18:27 3 0 0 1 0 0 0
TBL Yanni Gourde (C) 0.44 0 1 1 22 16:47 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Jiri Kulich (C) 0.32 0 0 0 26 18:55 3 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Brandon Hagel (L) 0.27 0 2 2 26 21:42 1 +1 2 0 0 0 0
BUF Sam Lafferty (C) 0.27 0 0 0 19 12:32 2 -2 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Alex Tuch (R) 0.26 1 0 1 29 21:00 4 +1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Oliver Bjorkstrand (R) 0.24 1 0 1 20 13:53 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Zach Benson (L) 0.23 0 2 2 15 10:57 2 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Brayden Point (C) 0.23 0 1 1 23 16:45 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Nikita Kucherov (R) 0.23 0 2 2 21 17:18 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUF JJ Peterka (R) 0.22 1 1 2 26 21:35 2 -1 2 0 0 0 0
BUF Peyton Krebs (C) 0.19 1 0 1 20 13:47 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Anthony Cirelli (C) 0.17 0 0 0 23 17:46 2 +1 2 0 0 0 0
TBL Nick Paul (L) 0.13 1 1 2 21 15:42 2 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Zemgus Girgensons (C) 0.09 0 1 1 17 11:02 0 +1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Mitchell Chaffee (R) 0.06 0 0 0 13 08:42 1 +1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Dylan Cozens (C) 0.05 0 0 0 26 16:54 1 +1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Gage Goncalves (C) 0.05 0 0 0 15 11:07 0 -2 2 0 0 0 0
BUF Ryan McLeod (C) 0.04 0 2 2 26 21:38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Luke Glendening (C) 0.02 0 0 0 18 10:49 1 +1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Jordan Greenway (L) 0.00 0 0 0 20 12:16 1 +1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Jack Quinn (R) 0.00 0 0 0 4 02:25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Beck Malenstyn (L) 0.00 0 0 0 16 09:43 0 -3 0 0 0 0 0
Defensemen
Team Player xG G A Pts Shifts TOI SOG +/- PIM PPG PPP SHG GWG
BUF Rasmus Dahlin (D) 0.29 1 1 2 29 23:35 5 +2 4 0 0 0 0
BUF Owen Power (D) 0.13 0 0 0 25 17:54 4 -3 0 0 0 0 0
TBL J.J. Moser (D) 0.06 0 0 0 30 22:53 3 -2 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Erik Cernak (D) 0.05 0 1 1 32 22:10 2 +1 2 0 0 0 0
BUF Connor Clifton (D) 0.04 0 0 0 21 15:36 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Darren Raddysh (D) 0.03 1 1 2 27 24:47 3 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Emil Lilleberg (D) 0.02 0 0 0 24 17:01 2 +1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Bowen Byram (D) 0.02 0 0 0 30 20:18 1 -2 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Mattias Samuelsson (D) 0.00 0 0 0 31 25:12 0 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Ryan McDonagh (D) 0.00 0 1 1 31 25:41 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
TBL Victor Hedman (D) 0.00 0 0 0 3 02:57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Jacob Bryson (D) 0.00 0 0 0 21 13:55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Goalies
Team Player SV%Ax SV% GSAx GA Saves TOI SA Dec SO
TBL Andrei Vasilevskiy (G) -7.53% 0.849 -2.5 5 28 60:00 33 W 0
BUF Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (G) -13.30% 0.769 -3.5 6 20 57:53 26 L 0