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Tuesday, January 27, 2026
7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena (MSG-B)
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
7 – 4
Final
Toronto Maple Leafs
 TOR
53% xGF%
47% xGF%
BUF was expected to score 2.84 goals TOR was expected to score 2.50 goals
P1 P2 P3 0 1 2 3 Cumulative xG BUF TOR Dots represent goals
Shot Map (xG Shots Only) Shot Goal
xG by State Buffalo Sabres Toronto Maple Leafs
Strength State Time xG G Time xG G
Power Play 3:50 0.29 1 1:52 0.26 0
Even Strength 54:18 2.55 5 54:18 2.23 4
Penalty Kill 1:52 0.00 0 3:50 0.00 0
Score State Time xG G Time xG G
Up 2+ 19:44 0.57 1 0:00 0.00 0
Up 1 15:11 0.75 1 4:12 0.03 0
Tied 20:53 1.19 2 20:53 0.76 2
Down 1 4:12 0.34 2 15:11 0.20 1
Down 2+ 0:00 0.00 0 19:44 1.50 1
  • ► Matthew Knies scores at 7:44 in the 1st period 0.08 xG (0-1)
  • ► Rasmus Dahlin scores at 9:29 in the 1st period 0.06 xG (1-1)
  • ► Auston Matthews scores at 10:49 in the 1st period 0.07 xG (1-2)
  • ► Josh Doan scores at 13:16 in the 1st period 0.07 xG (2-2)
  • ► Tage Thompson scores at 18:05 in the 1st period 0.02 xG (3-2)
  • ► Bobby McMann scores at 11:17 in the 2nd period 0.09 xG (3-3)
  • ► Rasmus Dahlin scores at 18:17 in the 2nd period 0.11 xG (4-3)
  • ► Alex Tuch scores at 0:16 in the 3rd period 0.06 xG (5-3)
  • ► Jack Quinn scores at 11:33 in the 3rd period 0.10 xG (6-3)
  • ► Max Domi scores at 14:59 in the 3rd period 0.13 xG (6-4)
  • ► Rasmus Dahlin scores at 19:16 in the 3rd period (7-4)
  • ► Watch the full game recap here
BUF BUF xWin%
-
Synthesized xGF% & GF% Analysis
Forwards
Team Player xG G A Pts Shifts TOI SOG +/- PIM PPG PPP SHG GWG
TOR Auston Matthews (C) 0.49 1 2 3 23 19:36 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Jason Zucker (L) 0.48 0 0 0 20 15:55 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Josh Doan (R) 0.47 1 0 1 18 17:19 5 0 0 1 0 0 0
BUF Jack Quinn (R) 0.35 1 0 1 19 14:21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Bobby McMann (C) 0.32 1 1 2 21 17:40 4 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Matias Maccelli (L) 0.32 0 1 1 21 15:36 3 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Max Domi (C) 0.28 1 2 3 21 15:55 3 +1 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Matthew Knies (L) 0.27 1 0 1 21 17:44 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Noah Ostlund (C) 0.23 0 0 0 19 18:33 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Calle Jarnkrok (C) 0.18 0 0 0 18 11:59 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Tage Thompson (C) 0.14 1 1 2 23 18:57 2 +1 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Steven Lorentz (C) 0.14 0 0 0 16 13:04 1 0 2 0 0 0 0
BUF Konsta Helenius (C) 0.13 0 0 0 17 16:12 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TOR John Tavares (C) 0.13 0 1 1 22 19:58 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Alex Tuch (R) 0.13 1 0 1 21 15:44 2 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Scott Laughton (C) 0.11 0 0 0 20 15:05 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Zach Benson (L) 0.03 0 0 0 21 17:02 0 +1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Peyton Krebs (C) 0.02 0 1 1 19 11:47 1 +1 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Easton Cowan (R) 0.02 0 0 0 13 11:14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Beck Malenstyn (L) 0.00 0 0 0 18 11:54 0 +1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Tyson Kozak (C) 0.00 0 0 0 18 11:20 0 +1 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Nicholas Robertson (L) 0.00 0 0 0 14 13:17 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Nicolas Roy (C) 0.00 0 0 0 11 09:44 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Ryan McLeod (C) 0.00 0 1 1 19 13:36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Defensemen
Team Player xG G A Pts Shifts TOI SOG +/- PIM PPG PPP SHG GWG
BUF Rasmus Dahlin (D) 0.42 3 2 5 28 26:24 7 +2 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Bowen Byram (D) 0.23 0 0 0 24 22:48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Jake McCabe (D) 0.18 0 0 0 32 21:54 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Michael Kesselring (D) 0.11 0 0 0 17 15:08 2 +1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Owen Power (D) 0.08 0 0 0 28 23:02 3 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D) 0.02 0 1 1 31 21:43 1 -3 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Zach Metsa (D) 0.02 0 0 0 9 08:17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Morgan Rielly (D) 0.02 0 0 0 29 20:52 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Troy Stecher (D) 0.01 0 0 0 27 19:47 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Mattias Samuelsson (D) 0.00 0 3 3 27 21:41 0 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Simon Benoit (D) 0.00 0 0 0 23 16:40 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TOR Brandon Carlo (D) 0.00 0 0 0 28 17:15 0 +1 2 0 0 0 0
Goalies
Team Player SV%Ax SV% GSAx GA Saves TOI SA Dec SO
BUF Colten Ellis (G) +0.70% 0.889 0.1 2 16 47:46 18 W 0
TOR Joseph Woll (G) -10.52% 0.800 -3.2 6 24 58:08 30 L 0
BUF Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (G) -32.61% 0.600 -1.6 2 3 12:14 5 - 0