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Saturday, February 28, 2026
7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena (MSG-B)
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
6 – 2
Final
Tampa Bay Lightning
 TBL
54% xGF%
46% xGF%
BUF was expected to score 4.11 goals TBL was expected to score 3.45 goals
P1 P2 P3 0 1 2 3 4 2 Cumulative xG BUF TBL Dots represent goals
Shot Map (xG Shots Only) Shot Goal
xG by State Buffalo Sabres Tampa Bay Lightning
Strength State Time xG G Time xG G
Power Play 8:18 1.20 1 6:30 0.54 0
Even Strength 45:12 2.91 5 45:12 2.87 2
Penalty Kill 6:30 0.00 0 8:18 0.04 0
Score State Time xG G Time xG G
Up 2+ 53:45 3.54 4 0:00 0.00 0
Up 1 0:50 0.10 1 0:00 0.00 0
Tied 5:25 0.47 1 5:25 0.06 0
Down 1 0:00 0.00 0 0:50 0.09 0
Down 2+ 0:00 0.00 0 53:45 3.31 2
  • ► Rasmus Dahlin scores at 5:25 in the 1st period 0.06 xG (1-0)
  • ► Josh Norris scores at 6:15 in the 1st period 0.10 xG (2-0)
  • ► Josh Norris scores at 8:18 in the 1st period 0.18 xG (3-0)
  • ► Tage Thompson scores at 15:06 in the 1st period 0.13 xG (4-0)
  • ► Zach Metsa scores at 1:54 in the 2nd period 0.11 xG (5-0)
  • ► Dominic James scores at 16:03 in the 2nd period 0.19 xG (5-1)
  • ► Alex Tuch scores at 3:43 in the 3rd period 0.05 xG (6-1)
  • ► Victor Hedman scores at 5:27 in the 3rd period 0.02 xG (6-2)
  • ► Watch the full game recap here
BUF BUF xWin%
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Synthesized xGF% & GF% Analysis
Forwards
Team Player xG G A Pts Shifts TOI SOG +/- PIM PPG PPP SHG GWG
TBL Brandon Hagel (L) 0.68 0 0 0 28 21:05 8 -1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Alex Tuch (R) 0.67 1 0 1 25 18:15 5 -1 2 1 0 0 0
BUF Tage Thompson (C) 0.54 1 0 1 20 16:00 6 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Oliver Bjorkstrand (R) 0.42 0 1 1 18 16:24 4 -1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Josh Norris (C) 0.40 2 0 2 22 15:03 2 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Gage Goncalves (C) 0.40 0 0 0 11 08:17 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Anthony Cirelli (C) 0.37 0 0 0 22 14:01 1 -2 2 0 0 0 0
TBL Jake Guentzel (C) 0.34 0 0 0 16 13:02 3 -1 14 0 0 0 0
BUF Jack Quinn (R) 0.32 0 1 1 20 14:21 2 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Zemgus Girgensons (C) 0.24 0 0 0 23 15:03 3 -1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Ryan McLeod (C) 0.23 0 0 0 27 20:21 2 +1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Beck Malenstyn (L) 0.23 0 0 0 19 12:26 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Jason Zucker (L) 0.21 0 0 0 17 12:05 1 +2 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Noah Ostlund (C) 0.20 0 0 0 20 14:46 0 +1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Dominic James (C) 0.19 1 0 1 17 13:06 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Nikita Kucherov (R) 0.17 0 0 0 21 20:11 4 -1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Peyton Krebs (C) 0.16 0 1 1 18 10:59 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Josh Doan (R) 0.11 0 1 1 24 16:08 2 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Pontus Holmberg (R) 0.06 0 0 0 20 13:52 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Yanni Gourde (C) 0.00 0 0 0 21 15:59 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Brayden Point (C) 0.00 0 0 0 20 17:52 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
BUF Tyson Kozak (C) 0.00 0 0 0 19 13:04 0 +1 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Zach Benson (L) 0.00 0 1 1 19 13:39 0 +1 2 0 0 0 0
Defensemen
Team Player xG G A Pts Shifts TOI SOG +/- PIM PPG PPP SHG GWG
BUF Rasmus Dahlin (D) 0.29 1 2 3 29 24:32 2 +2 2 0 0 0 0
BUF Zach Metsa (D) 0.23 1 1 2 18 13:08 3 +2 0 0 0 0 0
BUF Bowen Byram (D) 0.23 0 1 1 25 22:45 4 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Darren Raddysh (D) 0.21 0 1 1 21 21:18 3 +1 2 0 0 0 0
BUF Owen Power (D) 0.20 0 1 1 27 19:59 4 +2 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Erik Cernak (D) 0.14 0 0 0 21 14:39 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Victor Hedman (D) 0.12 1 1 2 22 16:53 2 +1 2 0 0 0 0
BUF Mattias Samuelsson (D) 0.09 0 0 0 28 24:08 1 -1 2 0 0 0 0
TBL J.J. Moser (D) 0.06 0 0 0 20 15:46 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Emil Lilleberg (D) 0.06 0 0 0 21 16:45 3 -1 2 0 0 0 0
TBL Ryan McDonagh (D) 0.00 0 0 0 21 16:16 0 -3 0 0 0 0 0
TBL Charle-Edouard D'Astous (D) 0.00 0 0 0 18 15:50 0 -2 4 0 0 0 0
BUF Michael Kesselring (D) 0.00 0 0 0 15 08:40 0 -1 4 0 0 0 0
Goalies
Team Player SV%Ax SV% GSAx GA Saves TOI SA Dec SO
TBL Jonas Johansson (G) +6.20% 0.952 1.3 1 20 38:06 21 - 0
BUF Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (G) +3.82% 0.947 1.5 2 36 59:41 38 W 0
TBL Andrei Vasilevskiy (G) -22.81% 0.643 -3.2 5 9 21:54 14 L 0