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Sunday, March 8, 2026
6:00 PM ET
| xG by State | Tampa Bay Lightning | Buffalo Sabres | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strength State | Time | xG | G | Time | xG | G |
| Power Play | 4:38 | 0.57 | 1 | 7:44 | 1.65 | 4 |
| Even Strength | 47:38 | 2.77 | 6 | 47:38 | 1.98 | 3 |
| Penalty Kill | 7:44 | 0.00 | 0 | 4:38 | 0.24 | 1 |
| Score State | Time | xG | G | Time | xG | G |
| Up 2+ | 1:41 | 0.01 | 0 | 12:31 | 0.91 | 2 |
| Up 1 | 11:49 | 0.88 | 2 | 20:57 | 0.62 | 1 |
| Tied | 13:02 | 0.48 | 1 | 13:02 | 1.37 | 2 |
| Down 1 | 20:57 | 0.67 | 1 | 11:49 | 0.65 | 1 |
| Down 2+ | 12:31 | 1.30 | 3 | 1:41 | 0.32 | 2 |
- Josh Doan scores at 8:26 in the 1st period 0.12 xG (0-1)
- Jason Zucker scores at 2:15 in the 2nd period 0.13 xG (0-2)
- Alex Tuch scores at 5:10 in the 2nd period 0.14 xG (0-3)
- Corey Perry scores at 7:55 in the 2nd period 0.16 xG (1-3)
- Alex Tuch scores at 11:07 in the 2nd period 0.19 xG (1-4)
- Nikita Kucherov scores at 12:26 in the 2nd period 0.05 xG (2-4)
- Zemgus Girgensons scores at 14:46 in the 2nd period 0.11 xG (3-4)
- J.J. Moser scores at 17:37 in the 2nd period 0.13 xG (4-4)
- Nikita Kucherov scores at 0:59 in the 3rd period 0.09 xG (5-4)
- Brayden Point scores at 5:46 in the 3rd period 0.15 xG (6-4)
- Sam Carrick scores at 6:12 in the 3rd period 0.06 xG (6-5)
- Brandon Hagel scores at 9:48 in the 3rd period 0.07 xG (7-5)
- Rasmus Dahlin scores at 11:03 in the 3rd period 0.12 xG (7-6)
- Jason Zucker scores at 14:29 in the 3rd period 0.15 xG (7-7)
- Josh Doan scores at 15:43 in the 3rd period 0.20 xG (7-8)
- Watch the full game recap here
BUF xWin%
-
Synthesized xGF% & GF% Analysis
Forwards
| Team | Player | xG | G | A | Pts | Shifts | TOI | SOG | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | GWG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BUF
|
Jason Zucker (L) | 0.97 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 16:42 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TBL
|
Brayden Point (C) | 0.46 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 17:13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Alex Tuch (R) | 0.42 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 18:54 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Josh Doan (R) | 0.39 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 18:25 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Brandon Hagel (L) | 0.38 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 16:42 | 2 | +1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Nikita Kucherov (R) | 0.33 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 19:15 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Anthony Cirelli (C) | 0.32 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 18:55 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Sam Carrick (C) | 0.29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 06:03 | 3 | -2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Jack Quinn (R) | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 15:19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Yanni Gourde (C) | 0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 18:39 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Noah Ostlund (C) | 0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 16:34 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Zach Benson (L) | 0.19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 14:15 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Zemgus Girgensons (C) | 0.18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 15:48 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Tage Thompson (C) | 0.17 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19:39 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Ryan McLeod (C) | 0.17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 21:03 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Corey Perry (R) | 0.16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 08:54 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Oliver Bjorkstrand (R) | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 14:02 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Conor Geekie (C) | 0.12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 07:33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Jake Guentzel (C) | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 17:44 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Josh Norris (C) | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 17:55 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Pontus Holmberg (R) | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 13:17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Peyton Krebs (C) | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 08:46 | 1 | -3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Scott Sabourin (R) | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 04:17 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Beck Malenstyn (L) | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 06:03 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Defensemen
| Team | Player | xG | G | A | Pts | Shifts | TOI | SOG | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | GWG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TBL
|
J.J. Moser (D) | 0.58 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 26:17 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Bowen Byram (D) | 0.37 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 20:12 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Mattias Samuelsson (D) | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 24:57 | 3 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Darren Raddysh (D) | 0.16 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 23:13 | 4 | +2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Rasmus Dahlin (D) | 0.12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 26:16 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Charle-Edouard D'Astous (D) | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18:37 | 1 | -1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Victor Hedman (D) | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 20:07 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Michael Kesselring (D) | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 06:03 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Owen Power (D) | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 27:08 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Ryan McDonagh (D) | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 20:41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Erik Cernak (D) | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 06:47 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
BUF
|
Zach Metsa (D) | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 08:55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Goalies
| Team | Player | SV%Ax | SV% | GSAx | GA | Saves | TOI | SA | Dec | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BUF
|
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (G) | -9.52% | 0.786 | -3.7 | 7 | 22 | 59:21 | 28 | W | 0 |
|
TBL
|
Jonas Johansson (G) | -9.85% | 0.810 | -4.1 | 8 | 34 | 58:54 | 42 | L | 0 |